Humpty Dumpty Rules OK ! @ No 10

"Oh dear, another faux-pas!" Arturo declared. "'Boy David' Cameron and his pal, Georgy Osborne, seem incapable of getting their facts right. So does 'Baby Face' Gove! Were they listening in school when they were told that 2+2=4 and not 5? They extended Humpty Dumpty's principle in 'Through the Looking-Glass':

"When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less."

"The issue with Cameron and his pals," Arturo said, "is that as well as 'words', they have applied the principle to 'numbers'. They pick a number and use it to represent just what they choose it to mean — neither more nor less."

Arturo had been looking at the BBC News web page that headlined an item:

Ministers rebuked on NHS spending claim : A watchdog has called on ministers to correct claims the coalition has increased NHS spending in England.

The UK Statistics Authority upheld a complaint by Labour about government claims the NHS budget had increased in real-terms in the past two years.

The watchdog found the best-available Treasury data suggested real-terms health spending was lower in 2011-12 than in 2009-10.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20600852

Oh dear! So the Government assertion that there had been an increase in spending on the NHS was wrong. Fancy that! If this Humpty Dumpty use of figures had been the only one from the Coalition, then Arturo would not have got so worked up! But just last month, further shenanigans had been played out! On November 8, George Eaton in the New Statesman wrote an article under the headline:

How Michael Gove manipulated education statistics : The Education Secretary's misleading claim that the UK has plummeted down the international league tables.

Whoops! Steady there, 'Baby Face' Gove! Surely, you would never manipulate statistics!!

George Eaton wrote:

One of Michael Gove's favourite arguments for his school reforms is that Britain has plummeted down the international education league tables. In June 2011 he told Policy Exchange that the UK had fallen from "4th to 16th place in science; from 7th to 25th place in literacy; and from 8th to 28th in maths" between 2000 and 2009 in the OECD's Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA).

Not something to boast about, is it? So why do it? Eaton went on:

Last month, in response to a letter from David Miliband, Andrew Dilnot, the chair of the UK Statistics Authority, expressed "concern" about the Department for Education's unqualified use of the figures. He noted that the OECD's 2009 report for the UK included the following "important caveat":

Trend comparisons, which are a feature of the PISA 2009 reporting are not reported here because for the United Kingdom it is only possible to compare 2006 and 2009 data. As the PISA 2000 and PISA 2003 samples did not meet the PISA response-rate standards, no trend comparisons are possible for these years.

He concluded: "These uncertainties and weaknesses are not just a technical footnote; they are themselves an important part of the evidence, and affect interpretation and meaning. League tables and the presentation of international rankings can be statistically problematic, and require clear and careful commentary alongside them."

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2012/11/how-michael-gove-manipulated-education-statistics

Now - I wonder if Gove studied those 6 crucial little words! Statistics require a 'clear and careful commentary alongside them'. Maybe, 'Baby Face' Gove should have warned fellow ministers about this recommended method of presenting statistics!

Remember, 'Apple Schnapps' Shapps? It seems he's not been averse to using statistics to advantage, he's well acquainted with the Humpty Dumpty principle! In June 2012, BBC News headlined an item:

Labour criticises housing figures used by Grant Shapps

In fact, Jack Droomey, the Shadow Housing Minister, stated that there were six areas in Shapp's statistical presentation with which he took issue.

Surely not! That pretty lad, 'Apple Schnapps' Shapps, he would never do such a thing!! Well - this is what happened, BBC News reported:

In January this year, the then UK Statistics Authority chairman, Sir Michael Scholar, replied to a similar letter from Labour MP Nick Raynsford. Sir Michael replied: "Looking at statistics on housing, house building and house prices more generally, the Statistics Authority has been concerned for some time that there is a lack of coherence and clarity in their public presentation."

He added: "I recently wrote to the minister for housing proposing that the Statistics Authority should be invited to carry out a formal assessment of the statistics produced by the Homes and Communities Agency and the Tenant Services Authority."

The invitation was not taken up by the Department for Communities and Local Government.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18388054

Arturo emerged from the kitchen with an icepack on his head! I couldn't believe my eyes! When I asked him what he thought he was doing, he replied:

"I'm studying Georgy Osborne's figures from the Autumn Statement. It seems, according to a well placed authority, that the majority of his figures are within the bounds of what statisticians call the 'margin of error'. So, it's dodgy, to say the least, to make claims on any such figures! But, that's just what he's done!"

I left Arturo with his abacus! In his own inimitable way, he's happy. Me? I'm off to sniff around the kitchen at No 11 - it was caviar time, so I heard! Talk about posh!!

'Bye'