Lies,damned lies & statistics @ No. 10

It's nearly the end of this political session! 'Boy David' Cameron is desperate to 'hang on in' before his next chillax. Yes indeed, the boy wants to chill out and relax! Maybe, just maybe during such a chillax time, he'll learn a bit more about statistics. After all, statistics should be the bread and butter of all PR men, aren't they?

Arturo was pacing the corridor outside the Cabinet Office and muttering:

It's all lies, damned lies - that's what it is! Yet they claim it's statistics!"

He grabbed hold of me and told me to read up on the PMQ fracas of 2 July. So, naturally I did just that. What did I discover - well here's some of it!:

Question: Has the number of people waiting more than the guaranteed four hours in A and E got better or worse?

PM's reply: "We have met our waiting time target for accident and emergency. ...it is 30 minutes."

He added: "There are 7,000 more doctors, 4,000 more nurses, over 1,000 more midwives, and we are treating over 1 million more patients a year..."

Question: ... before the NHS reorganisation, the number of people waiting more than four hours (in A & E) was 353,000. After his reorganisation, that has risen to 939,000, an increase of 300%. Is that better or worse?

PM's reply: "The average waiting time is down by more than half. ..."

It went on and on - and I have only briefly summarised the PMQs of 2 July! If you have the time and patience to read the full exchange, go to:

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201415/cmhansrd/cm140702/debtext/140702-0001.htm#14070259000006

As you can imagine, the whole fray received comments aplenty. Michael Deacon, Parliamentary Sketchwriter in the Telegraph wrote:

Spirited though Mr Cameron’s defence may be of his NHS record, some of his boasting was dubious. Under this Government, he crowed, “There are 7,000 more doctors!” Yet to train as a GP takes 10 years. Unless Mr Cameron and his current Cabinet spent the period 2000-04 going round secondary schools and urging pupils to study medicine, it seems rather a stretch for him to claim credit for it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/pmqs/10941213/PMQs-sketch-Dave-and-Ed-play-the-numbers-game.html

The following day, again in the Telegraph, Matthew Holehouse, Political Correspondent wrote:

David Cameron's A&E waiting time claim questioned: House of Commons library says PM's claim waiting times have fallen is "simplistic" and contradicted by better data sets

'Simplistic' and contradicted by better data sets! Now that's telling him! Was 'Boy David' Cameron best pleased - I should cocoa!! Holehouse's article went on to consider the issue further:

David Cameron's claim that A&E waiting times are getting shorter have been questioned by the House of Commons Library.

The Prime Minister’s claim that the average waiting time in NHS hospitals has fallen from 77 minutes under Labour to 30 under the Coalition is based on a “simplistic reading” of statistics.

The measure Mr Cameron used “is not the most natural indicator of ‘average waiting time’ in A&E”, the analysis found.

The intervention is significant to the Prime Minister because the House of Commons Library, which compiles research for MPs, is widely regarded by both parties as authoritative and non-partisan. It rarely makes comment on the merit of MPs’ claims in the chamber.

Now there's a fine kettle of fish! And it's stinking fish too (yum! yum!). If the Commons Library can smell it - there's trouble for our 'Boy'.

Holehouse continued his comments on the PM's responses to the questions at PMQs:

Mr Cameron responded: “Let me tell the right hon. Gentleman exactly how long people are waiting. When the shadow Secretary of State was Secretary of State for Health, the average waiting time was 77 minutes; under this Government, it is 30 minutes.”

However, rather than looking at average waits for treatment - which has been "static save for seasonal variation" since the change in government - or total time spent in A&E - which has been "steadily rising" - Mr Cameron's figure related to the average time after arrival in casualty before patients are first assessed, the analysis said.

Rather than highlighting the "median" average, which "has remained more or less unchanged at around 10 minutes" since 2008, Mr Cameron pointed to the "mean" average, which showed a dramatic fall from more than 70 minutes to around 30 after April 2011, which was the date when time to initial assessment in A&E was designated as a "care quality indicator" and became subject to mandatory reporting.

The House of Commons Library said that evidence suggested that "the mean value here is not a good indicator of time to initial assessment in A&E, so we should rely on the median value to tell us what the typical time to initial assessment in A&E is... which does not show the trend that the PM refers to."

And it added: "It's plausible that the fall in the mean in April 2011 reflects an improvement in data collection, quality and reporting, rather than any genuine change in waiting times."

The analysis concluded: "The data does not show that the average time in A&E has fallen since 2008. Rather, the typical total time in A&E has risen (for admitted patients, at least), and the typical time to treatment has remained static.

... The analysis concluded: "The data does not show that the average time in A&E has fallen since 2008. Rather, the typical total time in A&E has risen (for admitted patients, at least), and the typical time to treatment has remained static.

Now - I don't know my averages from my medians from my mean values!! But then I'm only an under-stairs cat - I ain't the Big Cheese the PM. He ought to know - or if he doesn't he ought to find someone who does know! Instead - he found a guy who was as great at PR as he is. This guy said, according to Holehouse:

A Downing Street spokesman said: “What the Prime Minister said was 100 per cent accurate. The average wait for an initial assessment is only 30 minutes under this Government – down from 77 minutes in 2010.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/nhs/10944598/David-Camerons-AandE-waiting-time-claim-questioned.html

Arturo watched me closely, as I read the various sources. Then, before I could so much as say a word, he said somewhat wistfully:

Politics is merely a socially acceptable form of vandalism. Instead of killing each other, politicians beat each other about the head with dubious statistics. I suppose it's better than blood dripping on the floor!

We've developed quite an appetite thinking about statistics! So, we're off to a fancy brasserie for a nibble or two - or three or four - or maybe that's six!Or should we go for a median value of seven? What do you think, Mr Cameron?

Bye