Think of a Number at No. 10

"Think of a number, mi old pal." Arturo said in a very conspiratorial way. "But don't tell me the number."

"OK!," I replied, "twenty-four!"

"I said - DON'T tell me! Now start again - think of a number."

I nodded.

"Add 2. Add 1. Take away 4. Add 1. Now take away the number you first thought of." Arturo waited while I did the maths! Then smugly, he said, "The answer is nought!"

I was amazed. "How did you do that?"

"It's simple, really - it can be done with any number." Arturo said. "Just look at what our Prime Minister does with numbers, all the time!" Arturo pointed to a pile of old print-outs from blogs and newspapers left standing under the Cabinet Office table.

I sauntered over and saw Arturo had highlighted some articles. Here is just a flavour of what he had found:

It was obvious that as long ago as 2013 - the PM appeared to be having trouble with his numbers!

David Cameron given a lecture on 'debt' and 'deficit' by top statistics official

That was the headline to Rowena Mason's article in The Telegraph in which she wrote:

David Cameron has been taught the difference between "debt" and "deficit" by Britain's top statistics official, after he was accused of confusing the two economic terms.

....The Prime Minister was issued with the explanation by the UK Statistics Authority, after he claimed in a Conservative Party political broadcast that "we are paying down Britain’s debts.”

The article continued quoting Andrew Dilnot, chairman of the Statisics Authority who confirmed that

... national debt has risen from £811 billion to £1,111 billion at the end of 2012. He copied the Prime Minister's Chief of Staff in Downing Street into his letter.

"It is clearly important for all parties to public debate in this area to understand the relevant statistical definitions and to distinguish changes in the level of debt outstanding from changes in borrowing per period, and to reflect these in their communication of the statistical trends involved," he wrote.

"These are definitions which accord with concepts set out in European and international statistical accounting frameworks."

In the same article, the then Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury was quoted as saying:

“It is hugely embarrassing for David Cameron that he has had to have the difference between borrowing and debt explained to him by the chair of the UK Statistics Authority ...it's time the Prime Minister stopped deliberately misleading people about his economic record.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9842553/David-Cameron-given-a-lecture-on-debt-and-deficit-by-top-statistics-official.html

Oh dear! In 1988, David Cameron, now our PM, got a 1st Class Honours degree in PPE from Brasenose College Oxford. And - don't forget the 'E' stands for 'economics'!! What was Cameron doing during seminars?

I perused the clippings further and found a real gem in The Independent

David Cameron's numbers problem: From NHS spending to immigration caps – how the Tories can't get their figures straight

That was the headline of Adam Withnall's article which proceeded to dissect the facts and figures. Here are some snippets:

• '£13bn more on the NHS'

David Cameron boasted that his Government had increased NHS spending by £12.7 billion – and that’s right. Spending on the health service increased from £100bn in 2010/11 to a planned £113 billion in 2014/15.

But in the Coalition Agreement, Mr Cameron pledged to guarantee “real term” increases on health spending – factoring in inflation.

It therefore seems inconsistent to not factor in inflation this morning – if he had done, Mr Cameron would have said spending on the NHS had only really increased by £5 billion – but that doesn’t sound quite as impressive.

"That's either smoke or mirrors! perhaps, a bit of both!" Arturo interjected in my ear.

• ‘Net migration into tens of thousands’

A famous objective expressly put forward by the Government was “that net migration be reduced to the tens of thousands by the end of the current Parliament”. Generally, this has been taken to mean an objective of net migration under 100,000.

... it stood at 298,000 in the 12 months ending September 2014, well above what Mr Cameron was aiming for.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/david-camerons-numbers-problem-from-nhs-spending-to-immigration-caps-how-the-tories-cant-get-their-10147119.html

"Umm! He certainly can think up numbers!" Arturo commented.

After all this reading I was punch drunk with numbers - lies, damned lies and statistics!

But there was also this numbers thing in Syria that had been highlighted by Arturo.

Ian Johnstone writing in The Independent had the headline

Syria air strikes: MoD disputed David Cameron's claim there are 70,000 moderate rebels

Johnstone wrote:

The Ministry of Defence reportedly asked for the controversial claim that there are 70,000 moderate rebels in Syria to be removed from the Prime Minister’s statement to MPs in which he made the case for air strikes on Isis.

The Sun newspaper, citing a Whitehall source, reported that senior defence staff had described the number as “misleading” and too high, based on reports from intelligence officers based in Lebanon.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/syria-air-stirkes-mod-disputed-david-camerons-claim-there-are-70000-moderate-rebels-a6759746.html

Whoops! And as if that wasn't enough then read what Conservative MP, Dr Julian Lewis, Chairman of the Defence Select Committee, said in the recent Commonsdebate on Syria:

So instead of having dodgy dossiers we now have bogus battalions of moderate fighters.

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmhansrd/cm151202/debtext/151202-0002.htm

Really! So, what is David Cameron's opinion of Dr Lewis? On his internet site, Dr Lewis quotes a comment made by Cameron in 2010:

"Julian Lewis has a formidable reputation in the field of defence and disarmament... Julian is held in very high regard by defence experts..."

http://www.julianlewis.net/

So what's 70,000 when you're among friends! Maybe our PM should start taking a few remedial maths classes. Surely, the PM needs to know how many beans make five! Or maybe not!

There was loads more! But I couldn't face it! Still got indigestion from too much turkey leftovers!

So I decided to take Arturo out for some posh nosh in the basement of The Savoy where one of my cousins, Francine, has just taken up residence! "Les moules marinières pour deux, s'il vous plait!", as Francine would say!