There's no 'bot' like an 'old' bot @ No 10

Arturo was full of seasonal cheer. He'd gobbled up the leftovers from the New Year's Eve lunch and had a swig at the punchbowl. Now, he was ready for a joke.

"I say! I say! I say! When is a bet, not a bet?"

"When is a bet not a bet?" I asked with a sinking feeling, knowing the answer would be long and complex.

"A bet is not a bet when it's a bot-bet!!" Arturo nearly fell over laughing. "Get it?"

I did not 'get it'. So I shook my head.

"Don't you never read them newspapers, what's all over the place?" He shoved several towards me. Then pointed to a laptop screen. "Take a butchers at some of them sites, mi old pal."

Between you and me - I don't understand betting! Odds are a mystery to me! What's more, I'm not sure I know what a 'bot' is either!

It seems there is an online betting site called 'Betfair'. I looked up Wikipedia to discover this about it:

A betting exchange allows punters (gamblers) to bet at odds set and requested by other punters rather than by a bookmaker. Members can make both 'back' bets (normal bets on a selection to win) and 'lay' bets (bets on the opposite side of the Back, against the selection), thereby eliminating the traditional bookmaker...

... The Betfair interface can be seen as bearing a strong similarity to that of the stock exchange, with the 'back' and 'lay' options comparing to the buying and selling of derivatives. Indeed there are many professionals who play the Betfair market for profit, using purpose-designed software 'robots', in much the same way as a stock market trader.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betfair

Umm! So, maybe Georgy Osborne should try his hand at this! If it's only a procedure of 'back' and 'lay', it should be a doddle, shouldn't it? Whoa there! It's not that simple, it seems. If it was then there would be nothing to stop the Italians, the Spanish, the Irish 'backing' and 'laying' their options and getting rid of all that nasty 'leverage'! So what's the deal, I asked myself. How come Arturo said, 'when is a bet not a bet?' and answered 'when it's a bot bet.'

I turned to the irishtimes.com web site. There was an article about the whole strange story.

BETFAIR HAVE confirmed a technical fault with a “bot” was to blame for the remarkable betting patterns that took place during Wednesday’s woodiesdiy.com Christmas Hurdle at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival meeting.

The betting exchange eventually voided all in-running bets on the race after one customer, whoBetfair have also confirmed was UK-based, laid easy winner Voler La Vedette for £21,474,836 at 29 (28 to 1).

This would have left the customer with a maximum liability of close to £600 million.

Thank goodness the 'customer' was not Georgy Osborne, otherwise 'Bagpuss' Pickles would have had to raise Council Taxes!

So what did this Betfair lot have to say for themselves? They were not happy bunnies, I can tell you! Their CEO was quoted on the Irish Times web site as saying:

This bet was placed by one of our UK customers trading the race via our API or Application Programming Interface (http://bdp.betfair.com/) using an automated program (a ”bot“).

Their bot had developed a fault causing it to try and place a very large number of bets on the Exchange.

These bets were large in size and mispriced. As you know, the Betfair system is designed to prevent customers betting unless they have the funds to cover their maximum liability.

In this case, the customer had less than £1,000 in their account so none of these bets should have been accepted.

However, due to a technical glitch within the core exchange database, one of the bets evaded the prevention system and was shown on the site.

This was an issue that was triggered because of a unique sequence of events that had never happened before.

The race continued and Voler La Vedette won. £822,614 of backers’ stakes were matched of the customer’s bet, resulting in a potential liability to the customer of £23 million.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2011/1231/1224309675181.html

All sounds very dodgy to me! Almost as dodgy as the Euro and the bankers. A 'bot' that goes berserk is a worrying spectre!

I visited some sites offering bespoke 'betting bots'. These bots, I was told, will make money for me when I sleep; when I am at work catching vermin; when I am out indulging myself. I would not have to do anything other than watch my 'cashflow' grow! Or so the botmakers tell me in flowery terms. Great PR, boys!! By now, I reckon, if I got my own 'betting bot' - I'd either be a billionaire or homeless. Odds are - I'd be homeless!

So, on this last day of 2011, what does this story tell me? Like much that has happened in the world of money since about 2007, there are some very dicey things and people out there ready to fleece the unwary. They'll sell you a mortgage you can't afford. They'll sell enough 'debt' to bankrupt countries. They'll offer you deals which will just profit their wallets not yours. They'll make you a bot that will give you nightmares not joy.

Arturo and I have hidden the sites and papers about this betting bot scam! You see Georgy Osborne and 'Boy David' Cameron are so obsessed with debt and 'leverage' that they might get funny ideas as to how they could solve their problems. Though they're both PR men, PR men fall for stories like anyone else!

So Arturo and I wish everyone a Happy 2012 which is bot-free and leverage-free.

'Bye' from us both.

Poor old Larry @ No 10

"Blimey, O'Riley!" Arturo said with feeling. "They're at it again!"

"Who's at what?" I asked.

"The media and your 'Boy David' Cameron are at poor old Larry - the crowned Downing Street cat."

As usual, Arturo was right. When they can't get at the MPs and Ministers or the Opposition, because they're on their jolly old hols - then the media seek a scapegoat.

We had been watching Norman Smith on BBC Parliament Review of the Year 2011 (episode 3: Politics). It was all very interesting. Arturo and I were quite enjoying ourselves. Then - out of the blue just after Norman Smith said 'It has been a difficult year for Downing Street' there was an image of old Larry - our upstairs cat.

We nodded in approval, though he is no particular friend of ours, he has certain things going for him:
1. He is a cat
2. He is a Downing Street cat
3. He ain't no pedigree cat but a mere moggy like us

So, imagine our shock when the voice of Norman Smith announced that:

Lazy Larry just spent his days snoozing! Poor Larry, you're going to have to do better than that in the next twelve months ..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b018wzy9/Review_Review_2011_Episode_3/

"Or what?" Arturo asked. "What will 'Boy David' Cameron and Samantha do? Kick him out? Isn't that just typical!"

I tried to explain that 'Boy David' Cameron is a PR man par excellence - he wouldn't like the publicity of being shown to kick a cat out into the cold! Particularly seeing as how he selected him, in the first place. It would be worse than kicking 'Wailing Lad' Clegg out of the post of Deputy Prime Minister!

We had only just got our breath back, at the injustice of it all - when wait for it - another story about Larry!!

In the Mirror, there was a headline:
Larry the Downing Street cat is barred from new apartment in No 10

The story was by James Lyons. He wrote a story to tear at your heartstrings - if you have a heart:

LARRY the Downing Street cat is banned from the flat lavishly refurbished by David Cameron, insiders revealed.

The Prime Minister publicly welcomed the tabby to No 10 earlier this year but he is not allowed in the family’s living quarters, even though they are plagued by mice.

Do you note the words 'lavishly furnished'! Huh! And Huh again! It's all right for the bloomin' mice to sniff their way round the luxurious tables and chairs but I bet poor old Larry is barred in case he gets cat hair on the seats!

Of course, the Mirror reports the excuses made by the 'usual sources':

... a No 10 spokesman insisted he is kept out for practical reasons as the flat is locked during the day.

He said: “David and his children are very keen on Larry. But it is a flat within an office so it is difficult.

“If he was in it, he wouldn’t be able to get into the rest of the building where he has the run of the place. He wouldn’t be able to access the rats.”

Actually - Arturo and I heard a rumour that 'Boy David' Cameron has bought himself a dart-board and does regular target practice. Why? Because during a dinner with Ministers:

the PM was reduced to throwing a fork at a mouse seen running across the floor during a dinner with Cabinet ministers last month.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/2011/12/27/larry-the-downing-street-cat-is-barred-from-new-apartment-in-no-10-115875-23661175/#ixzz1hlISUACg

We cats have to stick together! Maybe, Arturo and I are mere under-stairs cats but we are brothers under the fur! We cats will stand by old Larry! We'll do our best to rid No 10 Downing Street of vermin - of all shapes and sizes.

So - like the Dwarfs but without Snow White - it's off to work we go!!

'Bye' from us both.

Christmas Greetings @ No 10

From London Town

Arturo and I would like to wish all our many friends - especially our political admirers

A Very Happy Christmas
to one and all

The Military Wives Choir in Downing Street

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxQsQO8D85M&feature=youtu.be

All I want for Christmas @ No 10

Arturo and I found a box with

Post your letters to Santa

The letters were gold glitter and the box was bright red. We were curious. Arturo put his paw inside and pulled out several letters. We sneaked a look.

Dear Santa
All I want for Christmas is for my Beloved Leader to go on liking me - just a little. Please make this possible. Yours Nick

Wow! So all 'Wailing Lad' Clegg wants is to be loved! We thought he loved himself so very much that there was no room for any other love - still, it just goes to show how wrong you can be!

"Let's look at the next one." Arturo said mischievously!

Dear Santa
My 'want' for Christmas is quite simple and easily deliverable. Make sure those developers get their hands on some decent land fit for development.

Sour Pickles @ No 10

"It's end of term fever." Arturo announced. "They're off on yet more jolly old hols and in a rush to get away. You mark my words: 'There'll be tears before bedtime'."

He said this a couple of days ago before the House of Commons had finished its business for the Christmas break. Already, his forecast is pretty accurate. Remember the big strike we had on 30 November? Since then, unions have been in negotiations with various politicians, mainly Danny Alexander. On Tuesday, it looked as if there was success and that there would be no repeat of strike action.

By 20 December, several unions seemed content with the new arrangements they had been discussing. They had set off happily to inform their members of the new offer.

Oliver Wright of The Independent, under the heading: Public sector workers close to pension deal, commented:

... TUC general secretary Brendan Barber said last night that "a new atmosphere" had been apparent in negotiations since the strike.

"We have reached a stage where the emphasis in most cases is in giving active consideration to the new proposals that have emerged rather than considering the prospect of further industrial action," he said.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/public-sector-workers-close-to-pension-deal-6279487.html

It seemed that among the unions, Unison representatives were going back to their members to discuss the new arrangements. Only Mark Serwotka, general secretary of the Public and Commercial Services union, remained unconvinced. He felt that nothing had changed. Serwotka obviously has a Sixth Sense. He sniffed the air and said to himself - someone or some thing is lurking in the wings!

Our 'Little Boy Lost' Danny Alexander was so pleased with himself that he announced to Parliament in his guise as Chief Secretary to the Treasury:

I am pleased to report that heads of agreement have now been established with most unions in the local government, health, civil service and teachers’ schemes. It will of course now be for union executives and memberships to decide their response.

The heads of agreement deliver the Government’s key objectives in full, and do so with no new money since our November offer. In future, scheme pension ages will match the state pension age and schemes will be on a career average basis; all the agreements are within the cost ceiling that I set in November, and will save the taxpayer tens of billions of pounds over the decades to come.

Because heads of agreement have been reached, the better offer that I made in November has been secured by trade unions for their members, including the “no change” guarantee for workers 10 years from retirement. The heads of agreement also deliver a number of the key objectives set out by the trade unions during the talks. Negotiations on them are now concluded, and we and the unions agree that this is the best outcome that can be achieved by negotiation. It is the Government’s final position, and we will bring forward legislation to the House in due course.

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmhansrd/cm111220/debtext/111220-0001.htm#11122052000033

Even 'Weasel' Maude was quite upbeat about the 'heads of agreement'. And that is saying something!

Then, out of the blue, the Beast from the Deep emerged. The creature whom Serwotka had sensed was manifest. First came rumours of nobbling! Yes! Nobbling! Who was doing the nobbling? I'll give you two guesses. No - not 'Apple schnapps' Shapps.
No - not 'Disgusting' Clark. Surely, you must have guessed by now - it was the eminence grise who lumbers around behind the backs of unsuspecting, inexperienced Ministers and MPs whispering dark thoughts into their conch-like ears. The one whose smile makes stout men's hearts turn to stone. Yes! You've guessed right. It was the Communities and Local Government Secretary - none other than 'Bagpuss' Eric Pickles.

One needs, of course, to remember that it is Panto season and in 'Bagpuss' Pickles you have Captain Hook and Widow Twanky combined!

So what had evil old Eric been and gone and done?

Just as the applause for the Principal Boy - Danny - was dying down, there were boos and hisses from, among others, Unison. 'Look behind you!', 'He's behind you!' they shouted. Sure enough our Eric was there waving a letter.

What was in the letter? It seems he wanted to add several new caveats to the agreement. The most pernicious one for the unions was the suggestion that the councils’ pension contributions would be capped. In other words, the employer contributions to local government pensions would not be as generous as the original agreement had implied.

As soon as the union negotiators caught the whiff coming from the letter - all hell broke loose!

On the web site of the public service union, their head of local government, Heather Wakefield, was quoted as saying:

The announcement from Eric Pickles undermines trust and confidence in the relationship with the government over negotiations surrounding the LGPS. In order to re-establish confidence, and a way forward, we hope that ministers will meet us as a matter of great urgency in order to get negotiations back on track

(http://www.publicservice.co.uk/news_story.asp?id=18363)

Oh dear! After all the cheering and excitement too. So what is our Eric going to do? According to the public service union web site:

A Department for Communities and Local Government spokesman said: "We are in discussion with the unions to resolve any misunderstanding and reassure them that our intentions have not changed. It would seem the unions have read more into the letter than we intended. We are not imposing any new conditions. To iron out any ambiguity we will issue a new letter. We are confident this can be quickly resolved to the satisfaction of all parties."

One wonders whether our Eric will be burning the midnight oil re-drafting his letter. I guess that Cameron and our 'Little Lost Boy' Danny will be desperate for 'Bagpuss' to find the right words!

Arturo has bought a box of tissues in readiness for those tears he forecast! And after it all seemed to be going so well too!

'Bye'

A bloomin' miracle @ No 10

"Where's the abacus?" Arturo yelled.
"Use a calculator!" I replied. "Anyway, what do you need to work out?"

Arturo has grave concerns over government figures. Not Georgy's calculations, for once, but 'Boy David' Cameron's somewhat overblown maths.

On 15 December, he announced at the Sandwell Christian Centre in Oldbury, that the government had plans for dealing with the country's 'problem families'. Very laudable too. In this time of crisis, all families need help. Problem families need more help than most. The No 10 web site announces:

Tackling troubled families: new plans unveiled - Number 10

So one cannot help but listen to a man with a plan!

Here is some of Cameron's speech:

... today, I want to talk about troubled families.
Let me be clear what I mean by this phrase.
Officialdom might call them 'families with multiple disadvantages'.
Some in the press might call them 'neighbours from hell'.
Whatever you call them, we've known for years that a relatively small number of families are the source of a large proportion of the problems in society.
Drug addiction. Alcohol abuse. Crime. A culture of disruption and irresponsibility that cascades through generations.
We've always known that these families cost an extraordinary amount of money...
...but now we've come up the actual figures.
Last year the state spent an estimated £9 billion on just 120,000 families...
...that is around £75,000 per family.

http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/troubled-families-speech/

Now - that is a lot of dosh - £75,000 on 120,000 families! And what returns were there? Well, not much, it seems. Our 'Boy David', with a little help from his friends, is going to put it to rights.

One of these pals is none other than old 'Bagpuss' Pickles. Cameron said there is to be a :

Troubled Families Unit in Eric Pickles' department

Now, that will come as a relief to all 'troubled' families! Uncle Eric will be there to stand by them!

So what will Pickles' department do exactly?

We're not prescribing a single response.
But we are demanding results from councils in return for support.
For many of the most troubled families, there will be a family worker - a single point of contact for the first time for particular families - working out what the family needs, where the waste is and lining up the right services at the right time.
When the front door opens and the worker goes in, they will see the family as a whole and get a plan of action together, agreed with the family.

http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/troubled-families-speech/

Ummm! Pardon me - but haven't social services already been doing this type of work for many years? And isn't it the case that these same social services are now being cut? Yet this new 'plan' sounds like more - not less - work!

Our PM went on:

We can only act if we know where troubled families live.
Up to now we've talked in terms broad numbers - 120,000 troubled families across the country.
Today we are announcing, council by council, our estimate from data, mapping where these families are.
To give you an idea of the scale of the problem, there are an estimated 4,500 of these families in Birmingham, 2,500 in Manchester, and 1,115 here in Sandwell.
But setting out the data is just the start.

http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/troubled-families-speech/

Ah ha! Getting some real data here. Arturo will love it! Hang on a minute! Didn't a person called Henry Mayhew and someone called Charles Dickens say a thing or two about families like these - over a hundred years ago?

But here are the facts as Cameron et al have given us - 120,000 problem or 'troubled' families. Of course, we don't know how large or small each individual family is. Some may have one parent and one child. Others may have two parents, two grandparents and seven children. Who knows? One thing we do know is that they have 'troubles' and/or 'problems'.

So - how much dosh is this generous government going to throw at these families?

Some more Cameron talk coming your way:

So today I can announce the financial firepower we're putting behind this task.
We are committing £448 million to turning around the lives of 120,000 troubled families by the end of this Parliament.
This money has got to do its job.
Our offer to councils is that we will fund 40 per cent of the cost if they match this with 60 per cent. And crucially this payment depends on results.

http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/troubled-families-speech/

Just love the sound-bite, 'Boy David'! 'Financial firepower' - it sounds better than the 'big bazooka' he wanted Merkozy to start firing!

In a separate section of the No 10 web site, there is another document. It is 'Tackling Troubled families: New Plans unveiled' In this, the government's 'financial firepower' is spelled out in more detail:

Under the new plans the Government will offer up to 40 per cent of the cost of dealing with these families to local authorities – but on a payment-by-results basis when they and their partners achieve success with families.

http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/tackling-troubled-families-new-plans-unveiled/

Ouch! And ouch again! The phrases

up to 40 per cent

and

'but on a payment-by-results basis when they and their partners achieve success with families'

sound dodgy! Very dodgy indeed! Supposing, local authorities 'and their partners' work their socks off, spend loads of money providing services only to find that their 'troubled' families don't meet the targets!

Does this mean that they don't get any slice of the £448 million? Who will pay for the work already done?

Anyone who has worked with 'troubled' or 'problem' families knows that they cannot be turned around in a short time. Social workers, teachers and youth workers sometimes work for years with groups only to achieve success - if things go well - after many months or years!

In any case, let's get out Arturo's calculator. The end of this Parliament is Thursday 7 May 2015. Therefore, local authorities 'and their partners' have roughly 3½ years, give or take a week or so, to put right the 'troubled' families. Let's get the figures clear, shall we?

Government will contribute £448 million (40%) IF there are results!
Therefore, presumably the Local Authorities will contribute £672 million (60%) from their budgets!

"Sounds like a rum deal to me!" Arturo said.

The whole scheme would leave some councils sweating blood! How will they raise this money? Already social services are being cut by many struggling councils. Others have vowed that they will not increase council tax! So where's the dosh for Cameron's master plan coming from?

"This speech from our PM is just smoke and mirrors!" Arturo declared. "He's a great one for the sound bite, is 'Boy David'. He's trying to convince us that he's a bloomin' miracle worker!"

I knew what he meant! Of course, when I went on to read just two more lines from Cameron's speech, all became clear:

I'm grateful to Eric Pickles for leading the way...
...and to Ken Clarke, Michael Gove, Andrew Lansley, Theresa May and Iain Duncan Smith...
...for contributing not just the time to make this work but hard cash from their budgets.

http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/troubled-families-speech/

Wonder why he didn't add in:

Bill Brewer, Jan Stewer, Peter Gurney,
Peter Davy, Dan’l Whiddon, Harry Hawk,
Old Uncle Tom Cobley and all
Old Uncle Tom Cobley and all

With what Arturo inimically calls a 'bunch of geezers' like the ones Cameron thanked - how could things possibly be anything other than miraculous!

I'm off for a snooze.

'Bye'

BIG bazookas @ No 10

"We'd better call up Wellington and Nelson!" Arturo said gleefully. "Looks like we'll need those Martello Towers again!"

It seems that 'Boy David' Cameron's little stomp in Brussels, last week caused 'big bazookas' against 'le Royaume Uni' to be fired from La Belle France. The bazooka shots are particularly violent from paranoid Sarkozy and from Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France. Mr Sarkozy is even reported to have called Cameron 'an obstinate kid'. One wonders what he calls him in private!

As anyone who has even the vaguest knowledge of European history knows, France is the 'Old Enemy'. Not for nothing are they known as the 'froggies'. Our 'old' ally was Prussia. In fact, it was Prussian general, Gebhard von Blücher, who really won Waterloo for us! (Don't tell, Cameron!!).

The French breathed a consolidated sigh of relief when they no longer alighted from Eurostar at Waterloo. But - oh boy - didn't the Brits enjoy the discomfort until then!!

Of course, to the Froggies, the British have always been La Perfide Albion 'Perfidious Albion' or as Dr. Richard B. Spence would say:

Perfidious Albion – “Treacherous England,” “Faithless England,” or, if you prefer, “Dirty, Low-down, Sneaky England” – is commonly assumed to derive from the French La Perfide Albion. The epithet’s best known appearance is in the 1793 poem “L’ere de Francais” by the Marquis de Ximenez.

http://www.newdawnmagazine.com/articles/perfidious-albion-an-introduction-to-the-secret-history-of-the-british-empire

Ah! That was long ago and far away! But Sarkozy and Noyer feel the supposed perfidy intensely today.

Sarkozy is livid with Cameron. First, Cameron supposedly tried to destroy the unity of Europe in its valiant attempts to stave off disaster. Secretly - hush! hush! - we heard that really Sarkozy was only too keen for the Brits to be ousted! Indeed, some whisper that Cameron fell into a dastardly French trap!!

But now, it seems, our 'Boy David' has been wooing other slight wobblers in the EU. In other words, those who agreed to the enticements of Merkozy but who didn't really know to what they were agreeing!! Interesting phenomenon that! So typical of the Europeans, don't you agree?!!

Who are these wobblers? Well, The Guardian reported:

Over the past few days, Cameron has spoken to his counterparts in non-euro states Denmark, Sweden and the Czech Republic, all of whom are said to have concerns about the compact, as well as with Enda Kenny of eurozone member Ireland, who has warned he may have to put it to a referendum.

It went on:

Cameron's spokesman rejected reports that the PM was agitating against the agreement. "He has been speaking to a number of different European leaders in recent days and will continue to do so in the coming days, with the objective in mind of making clear that we want to engage constructively," said the spokesman.

"There is an inter-governmental agreement and a discussion about how to implement that inter-governmental agreement and we are seeking to engage constructively in that discussion.

"You would expect him to speak to a number of different European leaders in the coming days."

Innocent chit-chat? Depends on where you are sitting! Sarkozy prides himself on being the diplomat's diplomat. He longs for the French language to be the 'Lingua Franca' of all European diplomacy, is highly suspicious.

However, it is Christian Noyer who is, excuse the phrase, the eminence grise in this anti-Brit campaign. According to the same article in The Guardian:

Tensions between London and Paris were heightened further on Thursday after the head of France's central bank suggested that the UK was a candidate for a credit rating downgrade.

France is bracing itself for the potential loss of its coveted AAA rating after two credit agencies last week indicated they were considering marking down countries in the eurozone.

But Bank of France governor Christian Noyer said they should instead be looking at the UK because of the scale of debt and inflation and the poor levels of growth and bank lending on this side of the Channel.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/dec/15/france-eurozone-row-uk-credit-downgrade

In Le Télégramme, Dapper Mr Noyer is quoted as saying of Standard and Poor's consideration of downgrading certain European AAA ratings:

Ou alors, il faudrait qu'elles commencent par dégrader le Royaume Uni qui a plus de déficits, autant de dettes, plus d'inflation, moins de croissance que nous et dont le crédit s'effondre.

http://www.letelegramme.com/ig/generales/france-monde/france/christian-noyer-l-accord-de-bruxelles-est-bon-15-12-2011-1534967.php?xtmc=Noyer&xtcr=1

To put it into English:

Then perhaps, they should start by degrading the United Kingdom's standing. They have more deficits, are as much in debt, have more inflation and less growth than we have and their credit is collapsing

However, Noyer is deeply anxious that France's rating should not be downgraded.

So there you have it! 'Il vous l'avez!' 'Boy David' Cameron has finished his House of Commons fisty-cuffs with Ed Miliband. Now he is doing a re-run of the Napoleonic War! Next year isn't 1812 - it's 2012! Where are you Tchaikovsky!

'Bye'