A bloomin' miracle @ No 10

"Where's the abacus?" Arturo yelled.
"Use a calculator!" I replied. "Anyway, what do you need to work out?"

Arturo has grave concerns over government figures. Not Georgy's calculations, for once, but 'Boy David' Cameron's somewhat overblown maths.

On 15 December, he announced at the Sandwell Christian Centre in Oldbury, that the government had plans for dealing with the country's 'problem families'. Very laudable too. In this time of crisis, all families need help. Problem families need more help than most. The No 10 web site announces:

Tackling troubled families: new plans unveiled - Number 10

So one cannot help but listen to a man with a plan!

Here is some of Cameron's speech:

... today, I want to talk about troubled families.
Let me be clear what I mean by this phrase.
Officialdom might call them 'families with multiple disadvantages'.
Some in the press might call them 'neighbours from hell'.
Whatever you call them, we've known for years that a relatively small number of families are the source of a large proportion of the problems in society.
Drug addiction. Alcohol abuse. Crime. A culture of disruption and irresponsibility that cascades through generations.
We've always known that these families cost an extraordinary amount of money...
...but now we've come up the actual figures.
Last year the state spent an estimated £9 billion on just 120,000 families...
...that is around £75,000 per family.

http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/troubled-families-speech/

Now - that is a lot of dosh - £75,000 on 120,000 families! And what returns were there? Well, not much, it seems. Our 'Boy David', with a little help from his friends, is going to put it to rights.

One of these pals is none other than old 'Bagpuss' Pickles. Cameron said there is to be a :

Troubled Families Unit in Eric Pickles' department

Now, that will come as a relief to all 'troubled' families! Uncle Eric will be there to stand by them!

So what will Pickles' department do exactly?

We're not prescribing a single response.
But we are demanding results from councils in return for support.
For many of the most troubled families, there will be a family worker - a single point of contact for the first time for particular families - working out what the family needs, where the waste is and lining up the right services at the right time.
When the front door opens and the worker goes in, they will see the family as a whole and get a plan of action together, agreed with the family.

http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/troubled-families-speech/

Ummm! Pardon me - but haven't social services already been doing this type of work for many years? And isn't it the case that these same social services are now being cut? Yet this new 'plan' sounds like more - not less - work!

Our PM went on:

We can only act if we know where troubled families live.
Up to now we've talked in terms broad numbers - 120,000 troubled families across the country.
Today we are announcing, council by council, our estimate from data, mapping where these families are.
To give you an idea of the scale of the problem, there are an estimated 4,500 of these families in Birmingham, 2,500 in Manchester, and 1,115 here in Sandwell.
But setting out the data is just the start.

http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/troubled-families-speech/

Ah ha! Getting some real data here. Arturo will love it! Hang on a minute! Didn't a person called Henry Mayhew and someone called Charles Dickens say a thing or two about families like these - over a hundred years ago?

But here are the facts as Cameron et al have given us - 120,000 problem or 'troubled' families. Of course, we don't know how large or small each individual family is. Some may have one parent and one child. Others may have two parents, two grandparents and seven children. Who knows? One thing we do know is that they have 'troubles' and/or 'problems'.

So - how much dosh is this generous government going to throw at these families?

Some more Cameron talk coming your way:

So today I can announce the financial firepower we're putting behind this task.
We are committing £448 million to turning around the lives of 120,000 troubled families by the end of this Parliament.
This money has got to do its job.
Our offer to councils is that we will fund 40 per cent of the cost if they match this with 60 per cent. And crucially this payment depends on results.

http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/troubled-families-speech/

Just love the sound-bite, 'Boy David'! 'Financial firepower' - it sounds better than the 'big bazooka' he wanted Merkozy to start firing!

In a separate section of the No 10 web site, there is another document. It is 'Tackling Troubled families: New Plans unveiled' In this, the government's 'financial firepower' is spelled out in more detail:

Under the new plans the Government will offer up to 40 per cent of the cost of dealing with these families to local authorities – but on a payment-by-results basis when they and their partners achieve success with families.

http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/tackling-troubled-families-new-plans-unveiled/

Ouch! And ouch again! The phrases

up to 40 per cent

and

'but on a payment-by-results basis when they and their partners achieve success with families'

sound dodgy! Very dodgy indeed! Supposing, local authorities 'and their partners' work their socks off, spend loads of money providing services only to find that their 'troubled' families don't meet the targets!

Does this mean that they don't get any slice of the £448 million? Who will pay for the work already done?

Anyone who has worked with 'troubled' or 'problem' families knows that they cannot be turned around in a short time. Social workers, teachers and youth workers sometimes work for years with groups only to achieve success - if things go well - after many months or years!

In any case, let's get out Arturo's calculator. The end of this Parliament is Thursday 7 May 2015. Therefore, local authorities 'and their partners' have roughly 3½ years, give or take a week or so, to put right the 'troubled' families. Let's get the figures clear, shall we?

Government will contribute £448 million (40%) IF there are results!
Therefore, presumably the Local Authorities will contribute £672 million (60%) from their budgets!

"Sounds like a rum deal to me!" Arturo said.

The whole scheme would leave some councils sweating blood! How will they raise this money? Already social services are being cut by many struggling councils. Others have vowed that they will not increase council tax! So where's the dosh for Cameron's master plan coming from?

"This speech from our PM is just smoke and mirrors!" Arturo declared. "He's a great one for the sound bite, is 'Boy David'. He's trying to convince us that he's a bloomin' miracle worker!"

I knew what he meant! Of course, when I went on to read just two more lines from Cameron's speech, all became clear:

I'm grateful to Eric Pickles for leading the way...
...and to Ken Clarke, Michael Gove, Andrew Lansley, Theresa May and Iain Duncan Smith...
...for contributing not just the time to make this work but hard cash from their budgets.

http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/troubled-families-speech/

Wonder why he didn't add in:

Bill Brewer, Jan Stewer, Peter Gurney,
Peter Davy, Dan’l Whiddon, Harry Hawk,
Old Uncle Tom Cobley and all
Old Uncle Tom Cobley and all

With what Arturo inimically calls a 'bunch of geezers' like the ones Cameron thanked - how could things possibly be anything other than miraculous!

I'm off for a snooze.

'Bye'